Accountability SA

2025 National Budget Monitor

Track, analyze, and understand South Africa's National Budget allocation, spending, and performance metrics in real-time.

Key Budget Metrics

Critical financial indicators from the 2025 National Budget framework and economic outlook

R2.22 trillion
Total Budget Revenue
27.8% of GDP for 2025/26
9.5% from previous year
Tax Revenue R2.01 trillion
Non-Tax Revenue R37.9 billion
SACU Payments -R73.6 billion
R2.59 trillion
Total Expenditure
32.4% of GDP for 2025/26
7.8% from previous year
Social Services R1.52 trillion
Economic Development R289.8 billion
Debt-Service Costs R424.9 billion
1.9%
Projected Real GDP Growth
For 2025 fiscal year
Up from 0.8% in 2024
Household Consumption +1.9%
Fixed Capital Formation +5.0%
CPI Inflation 4.3%
4.6%
Budget Deficit
As percentage of GDP
Down from 5.0% in 2024/25
Deficit Amount R370.4 billion
Projected 2026/27 3.8% of GDP
Projected 2027/28 3.5% of GDP
76.2%
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Projected to stabilize in 2025/26
Key fiscal milestone achieved

South Africa will reach the important milestone of debt stabilization in 2025/26 through the strengthening primary surplus. Debt is then projected to gradually decline to 75.1% by 2027/28.

22¢
Debt Service Per Revenue Rand
Consuming 21.7% of government revenue
Stabilizing after years of growth

Debt-service costs will consume R424.9 billion in 2025/26, or about 22 cents of every rand collected in revenue. These costs are expected to stabilize this year after years of continued growth.

Metric 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
Revenue (R trillion) 1.95 2.03 2.22 2.38 2.52
Revenue (% of GDP) 27.5% 27.1% 27.8% 27.9% 27.8%
Expenditure (R trillion) 2.26 2.40 2.59 2.70 2.83
Expenditure (% of GDP) 31.8% 32.1% 32.4% 31.8% 31.3%
Budget Balance (R billion) -311.6 -374.7 -370.4 -325.6 -314.2
Budget Balance (% of GDP) -4.4% -5.0% -4.6% -3.8% -3.5%
Real GDP Growth 0.7% 0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9%
Debt-to-GDP Ratio 72.8% 74.1% 76.2% 75.9% 75.1%
CPI Inflation 6.0% 4.4% 4.3% 4.6% 4.4%
Source: National Treasury, 2025 Budget Review

Key Budget Insights

The fiscal strategy remains on course, balancing critical spending measures with revenue increases through a 0.5 percentage point VAT increase.

Debt stabilization in 2025/26 marks an important milestone in South Africa's fiscal consolidation journey.

Economic development is the fastest-growing function at 8.1% annually, driven by infrastructure investments and job creation.

The social wage constitutes 61% of total non-interest spending, highlighting the budget's redistributive nature.

Budget Expenditure Breakdown

Detailed breakdown of the 2025/26 budget allocation by functional categories

Consolidated Government Expenditure 2025/26

Total: R2.59 trillion | Growth rate: 5.6% annual average over MTEF period

Economic development is the fastest-growing function at 8.1% annual average, driven by infrastructure investments

The social wage makes up 61% of total consolidated non-interest spending over the next three years

Learning & Culture

R508.7 billion
19.6% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 4.2% over MTEF period
Basic Education R332.3 billion
Higher Education & NSFAS R55.4 billion
TVET Colleges R14.2 billion
Skills Development R27.9 billion
Education Administration R21.6 billion
Arts, Culture & Recreation R12.5 billion

Additional funding of R21.3 billion has been allocated for basic education, including for hiring more teachers and expanding early childhood development coverage

Health

R298.9 billion
11.5% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 3.8% over MTEF period
District Health Services R132.1 billion
Provincial Hospital Services R47.5 billion
Central Hospital Services R58.3 billion
Facilities Management R11.9 billion
Other Health Services R49.0 billion

R11.7 billion additional funding provided to hire more healthcare workers and strengthen medical supplies procurement

Social Development

R422.3 billion
16.3% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 3.2% over MTEF period
Old-Age Grant R117.4 billion
Child Support Grant R90.4 billion
Disability Grant R32.6 billion
Provincial Social Development R23.3 billion
Social Security Funds R99.5 billion

Social grants receive above-inflation increases to help vulnerable households cope with rising living costs

Community Development

R286.6 billion
11.1% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 5.4% over MTEF period
Municipal Equitable Share R106.1 billion
Public Transport R67.7 billion
Human Settlements & Infrastructure R58.0 billion
Other Municipal Infrastructure R54.8 billion

R9.4 billion allocated for rebuilding commuter rail infrastructure and R3.5 billion for municipal infrastructure disaster relief

Economic Development

R289.8 billion
11.2% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 8.1% over MTEF period
Economic Regulation & Infrastructure R175.7 billion
Industrialization & Exports R40.8 billion
Agriculture & Rural Development R29.4 billion
Job Creation & Labor Affairs R23.7 billion
Innovation, Science & Technology R20.2 billion

R46.7 billion additional funding provided for strategic infrastructure projects to stimulate economic growth

Peace & Security

R266.1 billion
10.3% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 1.8% over MTEF period
Police Services R133.4 billion
Defence & State Security R60.8 billion
Law Courts & Prisons R58.1 billion
Home Affairs R13.9 billion

Additional R10.1 billion allocated to strengthen core defence capabilities and border security

General Public Services

R78.7 billion
3.0% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 2.2% over MTEF period
Public Administration & Fiscal Affairs R51.7 billion
Executive & Legislative Organs R17.8 billion
External Affairs R9.1 billion

Debt-Service Costs

R424.9 billion
16.4% of total expenditure
Cost stabilizing at 21.7% of revenue in 2025/26

Debt-service costs will stabilize this year and gradually decline as share of revenue as the debt-to-GDP ratio peaks at 76.2% in 2025/26

This stabilization marks an important milestone in rebuilding the public finances

Contingency Reserve

R5.0 billion
0.2% of total expenditure

Set aside for unforeseen and unavoidable expenditure that may arise during the fiscal year

Economic Classification 2025/26

The economic classification shows how funds are spent across different categories of economic activity

Consolidated government spending increases at an annual average of 5.6%, from R2.4 trillion in 2024/25 to R2.83 trillion in 2027/28

Compensation of Employees

R822.8 billion
31.7% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 3.9% over MTEF period

Salaries and wages for public servants, including educators, healthcare workers, police, and other government employees.

Includes R23.4 billion allocated for the 2025 public-service wage agreement - the first three-year agreement since 2018.

Current Transfers & Subsidies

R750.5 billion
28.9% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 4.8% over MTEF period

Social grants, subsidies to public entities, and transfers to other levels of government.

Includes above-inflation increases in social grants to help vulnerable households cope with rising living costs.

Goods & Services

R352.1 billion
13.6% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 3.5% over MTEF period

Operational expenses, supplies, maintenance, and contracted services.

Funding prioritized for medical supplies, learning materials, and infrastructure maintenance.

Debt-Service Costs

R424.9 billion
16.4% of total expenditure
Will stabilize at 21.7% of revenue in 2025/26

Interest and fees paid on government debt. Consumes 21.7% of government revenue.

Will stabilize in the current year as debt reaches 76.2% of GDP in 2025/26 and declines thereafter.

Capital Spending & Transfers

R217.1 billion
8.4% of total expenditure
Annual growth: 8.1% over MTEF period

Infrastructure development, equipment, and other capital assets.

Economic development is the fastest-growing function, with R46.7 billion in additional funding for strategic infrastructure projects.

National Departments

R912.8 billion
49.1% of non-interest allocation
Funds allocated to national government departments and entities for national functions.

Provincial Governments

R767.8 billion
41.3% of non-interest allocation
Education 41.1%
Health 32.3%
Social Development 8.7%
Other Functions 17.9%

Local Governments

R176.8 billion
9.5% of non-interest allocation
Equitable Share R84.2 billion
Infrastructure Grants R61.5 billion
Other Conditional Grants R31.1 billion

Provisional Allocations

R37.1 billion
2.0% of non-interest allocation
Funds set aside for specific interventions and needs that may arise during the fiscal year.

Infrastructure Investment Plan

Strategic investments in infrastructure to support economic growth and job creation

R1.03 trillion

Total planned infrastructure investment over the next three years

8.1% Annual average growth - the fastest-growing spending category

The 2025 Budget allocates an additional R46.7 billion for strategic infrastructure projects to accelerate economic growth and create jobs

Funding Sources

Expanded Public-Private Partnerships

Regulations for public-private partnerships have been simplified to attract greater private-sector participation, with a target of R196.5 billion in private investment

Budget Facility for Infrastructure

Multiple funding windows introduced to accelerate approval and funding for strategic infrastructure projects across sectors

Municipal Trading Services Reform

Reforms to ensure municipal-owned trading services are financially sustainable and efficiently provide water, electricity and refuse collection

Investment by Sector

Transport & Logistics

R402 billion

Road infrastructure, including R100 billion by SANRAL

  • Rail Revitalization: R9.4 billion for rebuilding commuter rail infrastructure
  • Road Maintenance: R120.5 billion for provincial roads maintenance and rehabilitation
  • Logistics Corridors: R78.6 billion for freight logistics corridors
  • Public Transport: R67.7 billion for public transport infrastructure and systems
Job Creation Potential: 215,000 jobs

Energy

R219.2 billion

Electricity generation, transmission, and distribution

  • Generation Capacity: R105.3 billion for new generation capacity
  • Transmission: R72.6 billion for transmission grid expansion and stability
  • Distribution: R32.1 billion for distribution infrastructure
  • Renewable Energy: R9.2 billion to support renewable energy integration
Additional Capacity Target: 7,800 MW

Water & Sanitation

R156.3 billion

Dams, water treatment, and distribution systems

  • Water Resources: R68.3 billion for new dams and water resource projects
  • Bulk Water Supply: R43.7 billion for regional bulk water infrastructure
  • Municipal Water: R32.5 billion for municipal water and sanitation
  • Disaster Mitigation: R11.8 billion for flood control and drought mitigation
Households to Benefit: 3.2 million

Health

R41.5 billion

Hospital upgrades and new medical facilities

  • Hospital Revitalization: R19.2 billion for existing hospital upgrades
  • New Facilities: R12.3 billion for new health facilities
  • Medical Equipment: R7.4 billion for medical equipment
  • Digital Health Systems: R2.6 billion for health information systems
Facilities to be Constructed/Upgraded: 127

Education

R59.8 billion

Schools, universities, and TVET college infrastructure

  • Basic Education: R32.4 billion for school infrastructure
  • Higher Education: R14.7 billion for university infrastructure
  • TVET Colleges: R8.9 billion for TVET infrastructure
  • ICT Infrastructure: R3.8 billion for educational technology
New Schools Planned: 143

Human Settlements

R97.5 billion

Housing and community infrastructure

  • Housing Development: R58.0 billion for housing projects
  • Upgrading Informal Settlements: R22.4 billion
  • Social Housing: R10.7 billion for rental housing
  • Land Acquisition: R6.4 billion for land purchase and servicing
Housing Opportunities: 470,000

Digital Infrastructure

R53.7 billion

Broadband networks, data centers, and digital services infrastructure

  • Fiber Network Expansion: R24.3 billion
  • Rural Connectivity: R11.8 billion
  • Government Digital Infrastructure: R9.5 billion
  • Smart City Initiatives: R8.1 billion
Additional Households Connected: 2.5 million

Economic Impact

1.8%
Projected contribution to GDP growth annually
775,000+
Direct and indirect jobs to be created
2.4x
Economic multiplier effect

According to Treasury projections, every R1 invested in construction infrastructure generates R2.4 in total economic output across various sectors

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Tax Revenue Analysis

Detailed breakdown of South Africa's tax revenue sources and 2025/26 tax proposals

R2.01 trillion

Total tax revenue for 2025/26

25.1% of GDP
Additional Revenue

Expected additional tax revenue of R28 billion in 2025/26

Personal Income Tax

R811.1 billion
40.4% of tax revenue
No bracket adjustments for inflation in 2025/26

Corporate Income Tax

R331.3 billion
16.5% of tax revenue
Rate maintained at 27%

Value-Added Tax

R499.5 billion
24.9% of tax revenue
Rate increased to 15.5%, rising to 16% in 2026/27

International Trade Taxes

R87.8 billion
4.4% of tax revenue
Customs duties and import tariffs

Fuel Levies

R89.6 billion
4.5% of tax revenue
No increases to the general fuel levy

Excise Duties

R61.2 billion
3.1% of tax revenue
Alcohol and tobacco products

Non-Tax Revenue

R37.9 billion

Revenue Growth

+5.8% from 2024/25

Tax Buoyancy

1.2

2025 Budget Tax Proposals

R28 billion

Additional revenue targeted in 2025/26

R14.5 billion

Additional revenue targeted in 2026/27

VAT Rate Increase

Increase of the VAT rate by 0.5 percentage points in 2025/26 and by 0.5 percentage points in 2026/27, bringing it to 16% by 2026/27.

Revenue impact: +R20.4 billion
Zero-Rating Extension

Additional essential food items added to the zero-rated basket to provide relief to lower-income households from the VAT increase.

Revenue impact: -R4.2 billion
No PIT Bracket Adjustment

Personal income tax brackets and rebates not adjusted for inflation in 2025/26, resulting in fiscal drag.

Revenue impact: +R12.1 billion
Fuel Levy Relief

No increases to the general fuel levy to provide relief to consumers and businesses.

Revenue impact: -R4.8 billion (foregone)
Excise Duty Adjustments

Increase in excise duties on alcohol and tobacco products, with rates increased by between 4.9% and 6.7%.

Revenue impact: +R4.5 billion

Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Payments

South Africa will transfer R73.6 billion to other SACU member states (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Eswatini) in 2025/26, reflecting shared customs and excise revenues under the regional agreement.

Social Development & Strategic Reforms

Comprehensive analysis of South Africa's social protection programs and key economic reforms

Social Protection & Reform Summary

R271.8 billion Social Grants Budget (2025/26)
18.9 million Total Grant Recipients
61% Non-interest Spending on Social Wage
28 Economic Reform Initiatives
Social Assistance
Strategic Reforms
Reform Progress

Social Assistance Programs

Comprehensive breakdown of South Africa's social assistance framework and beneficiaries

Social Assistance Grant Details

Old Age Grant
R2,180 per month
3.8 million recipients
R117.4 billion total allocation
Eligibility: South African citizens, permanent residents or refugees who are 60 years or older
5.2% increase from previous year
Child Support Grant
R530 per month
13.5 million recipients
R90.4 billion total allocation
Eligibility: Primary caregivers of children under 18 who meet income criteria
4.8% increase from previous year
Disability Grant
R2,180 per month
1.1 million recipients
R29.6 billion total allocation
Eligibility: Persons with physical or mental disabilities that prevent them from working
5.2% increase from previous year
Social Relief of Distress
R370 per month
8.5 million recipients
R34.0 billion total allocation
Eligibility: Adults aged 18-59 with no income and not receiving other government support
Under review as part of comprehensive social support reform

Strategic Economic & Social Reforms

Key structural reforms aimed at accelerating economic growth and improving service delivery

Energy Sector Reforms

Comprehensive restructuring of South Africa's energy sector to ensure supply security and transition to renewable sources.

Electricity Market Restructuring

Unbundling of Eskom into separate generation, transmission, and distribution entities to improve efficiency and allow private participation.

Timeline: 2023-2025
Funding: R88 billion
Renewable Energy Expansion

Procurement of new generation capacity through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP).

Target: 11,800 MW by 2027

Transport & Logistics Reforms

Restructuring of South Africa's transport and logistics networks to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and enhance competitiveness.

Freight Rail Reform

Introduction of third-party access to the freight rail network and corporatization of Transnet Freight Rail to improve performance.

Target: 30% capacity to third parties
Port Operations Enhancement

Enabling private sector participation in container terminal operations to improve efficiency and competitiveness.

Timeline: 2023-2025

Water Sector Reforms

Restructuring of water management institutions and improving water security, quality, and service delivery.

Water Infrastructure

Implementation of critical water infrastructure projects to ensure water security and expand access to unserved communities.

Funding: R56.3 billion
Resource Management

Implementation of integrated water resource management approaches and catchment management strategies.

Coverage: 19 catchment areas

Fiscal Policy Reforms

Strengthening South Africa's fiscal framework to ensure sustainability and create policy certainty.

Debt Stabilization

Measures to stabilize government debt at 76.2% of GDP in 2025/26 and reduce it thereafter.

Target Ratio: 76.2% of GDP
Primary Surplus: 1.4% of GDP
Budget Process Reform

Review of the budget process to enhance medium-term planning, fiscal discipline, and spending efficiency.

Reform Implementation Progress

Tracking the implementation status of key structural reforms

Operation Vulindlela

A joint initiative of the Presidency and National Treasury to accelerate the implementation of structural reforms. The initiative focuses on five key areas: electricity, water, transport and logistics, telecommunications, and visa reform.

Key Achievements:
Unbundling of Eskom with establishment of National Transmission Company
Lifted licensing threshold for private power generation to 100MW
Completed auction of high-demand spectrum for telecommunications
Implemented third-party access to freight rail network
Digital visa system for remote work, critical skills, and investors
Streamlined water use license application process

Detailed Reform Implementation Status

Reform Area Key Action Status Target Completion Impact
Energy Establish independent transmission company Completed 2023 Enables grid access for independent power producers
Energy Bid Window 6 for renewable energy Completed 2023 2,600 MW of new generation capacity
Energy Restructure Eskom into separate entities In Progress 2025 Improved operational and financial performance
Logistics Private sector participation in container terminals In Progress 2025 Improved port efficiency and reduced congestion
Logistics Third-party access to freight rail Completed 2023 Increased rail freight volumes and reliability
Water Water use license process reform Completed 2023 Reduced license approval time from 90 to 30 days
Digital High-demand spectrum auction Completed 2022 Increased broadband access and reduced data costs
Digital Digital visa system implementation In Progress 2025 Streamlined visa process for critical skills and investors
Financial Implement debt ceiling legislation Planned 2026 Enhanced fiscal discipline and debt sustainability
Employment Social protection system reform In Progress 2026 Better targeting and pathways to economic inclusion